Original Content

My own content, net of any "links" or "pass-thru" posts :

< Don't update here frequently. I don't do many pass-thru posts anymore so this page may be a little redundant.>

• A riff on time... 3/21/21
• Volatility, spending and horizon wealth
• Would I pick up a million dollar bill in the street?
• How much faith do I have in the forthcoming equity risk premium for planning purposes?
• Visualizing the impact of spend choice
• Geometric mean, simulation, short horizons and portfolio choice 3/9/21
• Using approximations to intuit the output of simple non-spend MC simulation
• A fantasy of exogeneity
• Estimating geometric returns and wealth over time vs a simulated path 2/17/21
• On Snow
• Playing with Gaussian Mixes and "jumps" again
• Merton and a special case of optimal consumption
• In Memoriam - Dirk Cotton 195? - 2021
• Using an N-period Geometric Mean Return Estimate for Median Horizon-Wealth Outcomes
• Geometric Returns vs Net Wealth over Human Horizons
• Heat map of the expected time average of a non-ergodic process
• 10,000 years of a geometric return series - revisited now for time in years to get above a threshold
• Reminiscence of my Brother in Law.
• A dream about pain and war
• On rebuilding eyelids
• Stochastic Present Value with a Floor
• On inflection points
• On an "early" retirement 11/5/20
• On the affinity between PWR and SPV
• Real option value of spending less over 20 year horizon
• The absurd simplicity of my own retirement process
• [revised] On the alliance between fail rates and household balance sheets - Part 2
• Random Thoughts on Portfolio Choice and its Discontents
• Benford and Retirement Simulation

• Adding incremental uncertainty to a consumption utility model 10/2/20
• Asset Classes, Efficient Frontiers and Time 10/1/20
• Validating the T-distribution for use in my retirement blog 9/24/20
• Trying out the T-distribution for fatter tails
• Sense-making in Retirement via Triangulation 9/15/20
• Multi-period efficient frontier contextualized on a surface 9/10/20

• 10,000 years of a geometric return series done 1000 times
• On the alliance between fail rates and household balance sheets 9/5/20
• Evolution of RHedge over a decade in one table
• Riff on time averages and geometric means
• Being In The "Zone" 8/11/20
• The Cost of Retirement Certainty 8/2/20
• 3D Lorenz attractor fun on a Friday 6/19/20
• Some posts I've had fun with over the years (i.e., my favorites) 6/17/20
• Comparing my naive complexity model to earthquakes 6/5/20
• My baby steps into "critical states" in a decumulation model 6/3/20
• First whack at cost of stochastic inflation in decumulation 5/15/20
• My mini fake unrealistic economy4/25/20
• My inadvertent pandemic hedge 4/17/20
• My Indolence in Quarantine 4/16/20
• On Redundancy, Robustness, and an Interesting Chart I Once Did 4/3/20
• A change in the wind? 3/20/20
• A riff on the shift from accumulation to decumulation in an early retirement setting... 3/8/20
• Does allocation matter? 3/3/20
• How far? 2/26/20
• Message in a bottle 2/19/20
• Comments on the Floor Leverage Rule 2/5/20
• My first kinda botched attempt at backward inducting spending via SDP Feb 2020
• Twitter broke my pinned thread Feb 2020
• Increasing the machine's interval of interest to age 60-->95 Feb 2020
• Adding some lifetime income to the machine learning model Feb 2020
• Some Observations on my Machine Learning Project Jan 2020
• What happens when you try to improve the machine by suppressing outliers Jan 2020
• Machine v Merton at RA=2 Jan 2020
• Digging a bit more into the Machine-derived chart for higher risk aversion Jan 2020
• My machine digesting some higher risk aversion Jan 2020
• A peek into the learning process of my machine Jan '20
• Trying to Increase the learning speed of my naive RL machine Jan '20
• Update on my Reinforcement Learning Experiment Jan '20
• Goosing the reinforcement element in my machine-learning toy
• An interesting side effect in my machine-learning project
• An early look (too early) into my amateur mini-machine-learning project
• What I've been using 12/28/19
• Heat Scatter of Portfolio Longevity with N=1,000,000 12/20/19
• What an advisor might or might not tell you 12/12/19
• Denominator Wealth 12/11/19
• Brief note on some reasons for the Annuity Paradox
• On AQR's paper on retirement security in a low expected return world 12/6/19
• On 5 years of Blogging Retirement Finance 12/5/19
• Plutarch on Retirement 10/22/19
• Supplement to post on the "1970s game" 10/5/19
• A forward walk through the 70s using two types of dynamic asset allocation 10/3/19
• Some Self-Reflection on the Joint Spend-Allocation Choice...For Me This Time 9/21/19
• Revisiting Backward-Induction-Derived Asset Allocation over Multiple Decumulation Periods 9/19/19
• Annuities and Random Interest Rates 9/13/19
• If a sovereign country were to retire... 9/12/19
• A Middle Path and the Courage to Take it 9/9/19
• Fun little artifact from the "Spending, Rules and Habit" post 8/16/19
• Spending, Rules and Habit 8/15/19
• Retirement Finance and Herding Goats 8/13/19
• Health, Preventable Disease and Retirement Finance 8/2/19
• Update on prelim evaluation of real annuitization with stochastic inflation model 7/28/19
• A prelim look at a real annuity and lifetime consumption utility - with a stochastic inflation model 7/26/19
• A *very* prelim look at nominal vs real annuities and Lifetime consumption utility 7/25/19
• Fecundity and Long-duration Retirements 7/22/19
• Try #2 on a rough validation of a 3.6% break-even inflation rate for a real annuity 7/21/19
• A self-frame-of-reference that looks like the hard granite surface of a mountain
• When Retirement Quants Dream...
• Model Sensitivity: inflation vs lifestyle 7/8/19
• Playing around with inflation, part 2 7/19
• Starting to play around with inflation... 7/3/19
• Fitness after 60: Intermittent Fasting was Not Enough  7/3/19
• Nominal annuity allocation vs deferral - supplement to last post 7/2/19
• Annuity Allocation and Immediate vs. Deferral in a Lifetime Consumption Utility Context 7/1/19
• Deferring the optimal SPIA from the last post with DIAs to look for an even better set-up 6/27/19
• Annuitizing Larger Portions of Initial Wealth in a Lifetime Consumption Utility Simulator 6/26/19
• Lifetime Consumption Utility "Frontier" and DIAs - With Different Deferral Periods 6/23/19
• Adding a DIA to the last post that was looking at a consumption utility "frontier" 6/20/19
• Lifetime Consumption Utility "Frontier" with both Trend-following (fake) and Partial Annuitization (also fake) 6/19/19
• An attempt at a stylized lifetime consumption utility "frontier" 6/18/19
• Honors (repost) 
• Lifetime Consumption Utility with addition of trend following-like behavior 6/13/19
• Having Some Fun with Portfolio Choice vs. Lifetime Consumption Utility 6/12/19
• An amateur map of the psychology of irrational spending choice 6/8/19
• Self-Evaluation of My Own Lifetime Consumption Utility, Part 2 
• Self-Evaluation of My Own Lifetime Consumption Utility 6/7/19
• 100: Holy Crap That Hurt 6/4/19
• Volatility effects on a hypothetical real-wealth-option paid for by spending reductions 6/1/19
• Quick and Dirty Experiment with Real Options on Future Wealth vs Spending Choice. 5/30/19
• Some spend rate ranges I've run into recently 5/29/19
• Obscure artifacts, now with a constrained horizon 5/28/19
• My portfolio longevity modeling artifacts vs economic utility theory on one set of parameters 5/25/19
• One more obscure artifact of Portfolio Longevity 5/24/19
• Obscure Artifacts 5/23/19
• Where's Waldo? (or where is the 4% rule) 5/22/19
• 3D visualization of portfolio longevity vs withdrawal rates 5/22/19
• Withdrawal Rates, Stochastic Portfolio Longevity, and Trend Following 5/21/19
• Volatility and Stochastic Portfolio Longevity 5/20/19
• My interview that showed up in Kiplinger's Retirement Report 5/20/19
• A "tipping point" and the 4% rule? 5/20/19
• illustration of Withdrawal Rates vs. Portfolio Longevity 5/20/19
• First derivative of deterministic portfolio longevity 5/18/19
• Simple reality check vs. complex SPV 5/15/19
• Impact of Longevity Expectations on the Stochastic PV of Spending 5/14/19
• The Geography of Retirement 5/13/19
• I like to drink rye ... or ... Fitness after 60 5/8/19
• Five Retirement Processes, now in PDF form 5/6/19
• The trade-offs and interaction between rebalancing and trend-following 4/30/19
• Ken Steiner on Actuarial Balance Sheets 4/27/19
• 20 year Trend Index Returns 4/23/19
• Overthinking Social Security Claim Age 4/23/19
• Newfound on withdrawal rates and path-dependency 4/22/19
• A hidden variable 4/17/2019
• Trend Following and Portfolio Longevity 4/12/2019
• Trend Following and Commitment 4/6/2019
• Selected excerpts from G Irlam's "Asset Allocation Confidence Intervals in Retirement" 4/2/2019
• Trend Following in Retirement Portfolios - another quick look 3/29/2019
• On Outliers or a response that got away from me 3/19/2019
• Another half-a** look at trend following and retirement portfolios 3/17/2019
• Trial run: effects on "Perfect Withdrawal Rates" from allocations to trend following 2/16/2019
• Perfect Withdrawal Rates and Random Lifetime 3/11/2019
• On "Post-Modern" Planning Horizons 3/4/2019
• The shape of conditional mortality 3/4/2019
• Process 5 - Continuous Monitoring and Management Processes 2/26/2019
• Supplement to my feasibility game - adding Player E 2/6/2019
• Supplement to my "playing a feasibility game against the 1970s"2/5/2019
• Playing a feasibility game against the 1970s 2/4/2019
• Process 4 - Human Mortality and Conditional Survival Probability 1/24/2019
• Process 3 - Portfolio Longevity 1/18/2019
• Mr. Money Mustache on one of the hardest things in retirement finance…and life. 1/3/2019
• Process 2 - Stochastic Consumption Processes 1/2/2019
• Cotton on Ret-Fin 2018 12/30/2018
• Process 1 - Return Generation [draft] 12/6/18
• Five Retirement Processes 11/29/18
• Another look at the effects of time on terminal wealth in presence of volatility 11/25/18
• Dirk Cotton on Mean Reversion 11/13/18
• Thucydides on Retirement 11/12/18
• A visualization of multiplicative return generation, terminal wealth and risk over 10 periods 11/7/18
• Courage and the Annuity Boundary 10/28/18
• What is the correct benchmark for trend following? 10/16/18
• Some random comments on random longevity in modeling 10/9/18
• My new favorite paper... 10/2/18
• Another possible small future tweak to the lifetime consumption utility calc 10/1/18 
• A RiversHedge Reading List 9/28/18
• How I might tweak my consumption utility simulator in the future 9/23/18
• Some of my influences...for now 9/16/18
• Perfect Withdrawal Rates with normal and fat-tailed return distributions 9/13/18
• Revisiting Perfect Withdrawal Rates But with Variable Duration 9/10/18
• Optimal Spend Rates and Casual, Borrowed Backward Induction 9/9/18
• Optimized spend rates by age and allocation in a lifecycle-decumulation utility model 9/2/18 
• My 2 cents on buybacks 8/31/18
• Endowments, Retirement and Spending 8/30/18
• A 2nd attempt at viewing retirement choice as a type of real option - preliminary 8/27/18
• Spend Rates by Age, Wealth Level, and Risk Aversion in a Lifecycle Utility Model 8/21/18
• Wealth and spend rates in a lifecycle utility model - preliminary 8/20/18
• A quick peek at consumption utility with a deferred annuity 8/15/18
• Hindsight 12 - No Math Will Save Me or The Most Important Equation 8/14/18
• Asset Allocation and Spend Rates in a Lifecycle (WDT) Utility Model 8/11/18
• Case for social cooperation among retirees with high vol strategies? 8/7/18
• Note on my WDT model 8/2/18
• On sloppiness v accountability 7/31/18
• Some thoughts on modeling complexity 7/30/18
• Testing last year's naive intuition on consumption utility with a lifetime utility model 7/29/18
• A Weak Defense of the Constant Spend Assumption in Retirement Modeling 7/20/18
• Book Mention -- Willful Ignorance 7/19/18
• Alpha Architect on Investment Factors in Bonds 7/19/18 
• A Compendium of my "Wealth Depletion Time" Posts 7/15/18
• On Turning 60 7/14/18
• Epic father-daughter road trip, episode 2 7/11/18
• Uncertainty in Equity-Bond Correlation Assumptions 7/10/18
• What if advisors were paid based on RULC? A thought experiment 7/9/18
• 34 months of alt risk: small business receivables and term-lending credit 7/9/18
• Contextualizing my alt-risk strategy in HFR index space 7/6/18 
• End of one (strategy) era, the beginning of another 7/3/18
• Wealth Depletion Time Simulator - an update and summary 6/29/18
• Capital Spectator's R-analytics book on my to-buy list 6/19/18 
• Public Service Announcement from RH on fragile systems 6/11/18
• Hindsight 11: The underappreciated power of non-digital social connection 6/4/18
• Snap-to-income scenarios can come from below not just above 5/30/18
• Another way to look at the wealth depletion concept using two spend rules and charting real consumption 5/29/18
• The Wealth Depletion Time EDULC Simulator is live! 5/27/18
• I am my own behavioral case study on annuitization 5/10/18
• Powerful audio: family oral history on Vietnam war and the student movement 5/3/2018
• Putting it all together: a wealth depletion time "utility simulator" 5/3/18
• On Uncertainty 5/1/18
• In honor of Gauss' B-day 4/30/18
• Black Seadevil 4/23/18
• Ceasar as literary artist 4/19/18 
• A story that blows away this blog and 99% of anything I've heard lately 4/18/18
• Hindsight 10: meaning, purpose, and identity 4/18/18 
• 3D utility surface in WDT model: return vs spend rate 4/17/18
• On Ruin and Risk 4/17/18
• I'm a grubby miser 4/16/18
• 3D "utility surface" in a Wealth Depletion Time model: spend rates vs annuity 4/13/18
• Stochastic vs Deterministic - Part 2 4/13/18 
• Sliver of hope for dividends?? 4/12/18
• Supplement to "optimizing spend rates in a WDT model" 4/11/18
• The marginal cost of procrastination at age 60 4/11/18
• Optimizing Spend Rates in a simple WDT model 4/10/18
• Dividend investing meets Wealth Depletion Time and...nothing 4/9/18
• Affinities between national defense analysis and retirement? 4/9/18
• Buying some extra "certainty equivalent constant" spending given a wealth depletion framework. 4/8/18
• A Life in Books 4/7/18
• On Stochastic vs. Deterministic Models 4/7/18  
• 10 years of retirement, 3 years of quant-ish blogging and I've only done two things 4/6/18 
• A trial run of a WDT game prototype 3/6/18
• Short options, LJM, and my lack of interest in a long/short option ratio 4/5/18
• Coming soon -- The Wealth Depletion Time Game? 4/4/18 
• Wealth Depletion Time - Commentary 3/4/18
• Is this an easy "Wealth Depletion Time" analysis method by proxy? 4/3/18
• Wealth Depletion Time - Selected Excerpts 4/3/18
• Wealth Depletion Time - Adding again to my pile with Leung '94 3/31/18
• Pseudo Annuity Boundary for Age 60 Male With 100k Lifestyle? 3/29/18
• My annuity game extended: now vs RMD with 3 different return expectations 3/27/18
• Early retirement: inflation adjusted annuity vs. 2 SWPs 3/25/18
• Wealth Depletion Time - an Hypothesis and a Self-Challenge 3/24/18 
• 4% spend vs. survival probabilities and a net wealth process vs. annuity boundary 3/23/18
• Proof that I do more than read SSRN papers and code stuff in R and Excel... 3/21/18
• Correction - My post on bequests and fairness...esp wrt the delta concept 3/20/18 
• One of the several to many things I didn't know: mathematical life expectancy 3/20/18
• Calibrating my annuity calc 3/19/18
• My Drowning Man Story -- and a recipe 3/18/18
• The power and glory of a single word 3/18/18
• Some thoughts on bequests and fairness: a mini moral-theory story about me vitiating my optimal path - draft 1 3/17/18
• On the delta value of longevity risk pooling 3/16/18
• Notes on: Utility Value of Longevity Risk Pooling - Milevsky and Huang 2018 3/14/18
• Thoughts on "Bernoulli's error" and Samuelson v. J L Kelly 3/13/18
• A Pseudo Tontine for Me...But Probably Not for You  3/12/18
• Optimal Purchasing of Deferred Income Annuities -- Huang, Milevsky, Young 2015 3/12/18
• Tincup in the RH lab  3/11/18
• Evaluating Retirement Strategies: A Utility-Based Approach - Estrada & Kritzman 2018  3/10/18
• On RiversHedge and Hobbies 3/10/18
• Is Illinois the worst run state? 3/9/18
• A retirement game for a young adult 3/2/18
• Book Mention - Ten Great Ideas About Chance 3/1/18
• AQR and pulling the goalie 3/1/18
• On how to characterize my blog...not to mention your blog 2/25/18
• Notes on my excellent spending adventure 2/24/18
• More "theory reference points" (Yaari) for my custom spend calc and stochastic present values 2/21/18
• Option value of not annuitizing? - another amateur hack attempt 2/19/18
• Probability distribution of a net wealth process over 20 periods 2/18/18
• An early-retirement-stochastic-PV game 2/15/18
• Simulated stochastic present value of spending meets an efficient frontier 2/12/18 
• On the affinities between retirement tools and optical systems 2/10/18
• The theory behind my custom spend calc? 2/9/18
• Perfect Withdrawal Rates and Asset Allocation 2/9/18
• Deconstructing one non-normal SPY distribution into two normals -- just for fun -- and then putting it back together again 2/8/18
• qqplot of my strategy 2/6/18
• Hindsight 9: Three Independent Things 2/3/18
• Backward looking mean-var for my systematic alt risk strategy - update Jan '18 2/2/18
• Some fun software tricks in image processing 2/1/18
• Rudimentary spreadsheet sim vs. imperfect estimator for N-period geometric mean and sd 2/1/18
• Geometric mean returns and portfolio choice 1/31/18
• How big of a deal is it to randomize the discount rate in a SPV liability calc? 1/31/18 
• Telescope fever 1/30/18
• 3D surface of Conditional Survival Probability 50-75 1/29/18
• Rerun - cumulative geometric returns over 20 periods 1/28/18
• How might I project an SPV spend liability estimate out 3 or 10 years from today? - 1/25/18
• Transforming my cluelessness into a different kind of cluelessness - 1/23/18
• Here is (maybe) a way to make a spend liability calc a little like a ruin-risk calc - 1/19/18
• Another look at a spend liability distribution - 1/18/18
• A custom spend liability calc vs. a fixed annuity - 1/13/18
• A different, non-finance retirement analysis - for me, 1/6/17
• Running some different numbers on a spend-liability estimate for a balance sheet, 1/2/18
• Hindsight 8: The mis-allure of the constant spending plan, 12/16/17
• Hindsight 7: Embracing both the tech and the math, 12/13/17
• Hindsight 6: Household balance sheet 12/12/17
• Hindsight 5: early retirement vs not-early retirement, 12/11/17
• Hindsight 4: The funky-ness of geometric returns in a multi-period setting, 12/9/17
• Hindsight 3: ruin risk as the pairing of two separate and independent things, 12/6/17
• Hindsight 2: the continuous unstable present vs the future 12/5/17
• Hindsight 1: Monte Carlo simulation 11/26/17
• Bitcoin madness 11/19/17
• Some thoughts on investing vs retirement wealth processes 11/16/17
• Notes in a 2001 German paper about ruin estimation math 11/15/17
• On the immense conviviality and generosity of the retirement finance research crowd that I've run into 11/14/17 
• Minor recast of the DIA chart in the last post (A quick, dirty, amateur look at DIAs) 11/14/17
• A quick, dirty, amateur look at DIAs 11/13/17
• Playing around with an EOYS free boundary sustainability metric 11/7/17
• Prototype of an "annuity price as a proxy for a free boundary" concept 11/6/17
• Walking back my comment on fail magnitude... 11/5/17
• On renaming my ruin estimation tool, my guess at its notation and some other considerations 11/5/17 
• Kelly allocation bet with regime suppression?  11/1/17
• Perfect withdrawal rates, trend following, and stochastic longevity 10/30/17
• Portfolio longevity, defective distributions and some small thoughts on fail magnitude 10/29/17
• Some thoughts on investment horizons 10/28/17
• What I use in my own process - draft 1 10/22/17
• Some effects of longevity assumptions on ruin estimates 10/21/17
• Last ruin game (with CBOE iron condor index) 10/17/17 
• Another game with non-normal returns (CTA index) 10/16/17
• What would happen if I allocated 100% to my alt-risk strategy (in terms of ruin risk) 10/16/17
• The 2017 RiversHedge 20 Best-of Awards 10/13/17
• Starting to look a little closer at my normal return assumptions 10/12/71
• A thousand years of the 4% rule: the naked, ugly glory of it all 10/11/17
• Tuesday with Moshe 10/10/17 
• The Shape of Ruin Risk 10/10/17
• A type of heat map of ruin risk arising from: age, allocation, spending, and return distributions 10/9/17
• My ruin approximation tool against 96 test conditions comparing it to the K equation 10/6/17
• A CFA Institute post on volatility... 10/5/17
• Kelly bet sizing for me with parameter uncertainty 10/3/17
• Here is the theory behind my joint probability approximation (JPA) tool 10/2/17
• On why the 4% rule was always a little bit of a head fake 10/1/17
• One last look at my joint probability approximation tool for estimating lifetime risk of ruin 9/30/17
• A third look at a joint probability approximation for ruin risk 9/30/17
• A second look at a joint probability approximation for ruin risk 9/30/17
• Ahhhhh...Now I get it! Ruin risk is a joint probability of separate distributions 9/29/17
• A riff on Hoffstein's "Lie of Averages" 9/29/17
• Taking another look at visualizing sequence risk 9/27/17
• On the diminishing returns of financial modeling complexity 9/25/17
• Can I project a geometric frontier that reflects spending? 9/19/17
• Retirement finance theory vs. the "other stuff" 9/17/17
• The behavior of geometric returns over time with volatility and spending present 9/15/17 
• On the affinities between hurricanes and retirement 9/13/17
• Acknowledging the acknowledgement 9/12/17
• Simulation vs PDEs and other analytic methods 9/4/17
• PWR v Kolmogorov v MC simulator 9/4/17
• Prelim. study of PWRs and stochastic longevity 9/3/17
• Kolmogorov vs RH40 spending rule 8/31/17
• Mesmerized by Kolmogorov - draft 1 8/30/17
• Visualizing Sequence of Returns Risk 8/28/17
• Putting an adaptive PWR up against changing longevity estimates 8/23/17
• Some PWR acknowledgements and comments 8/22/17
• Trend Following Can Enhance Withdrawal Rates - Part 4 8/21/17
• Trend Following Can Enhance Withdrawal Rates - Part 3 8/20/17 
• Retirement finance in Viking terms 8/19/17
• Trend Following Can Enhance Withdrawal Rates - Part 2 8/18/17
• Trend Following Can Enhance Withdrawal Rates - part 1 8/17/17
• Asset allocation and risk aversion in the absence of human capital 8/15/17
• Kelly Criterion vs. a short options strategy 8/9/17
• Taking Tomlinson's annuity logic out for a test drive for a 59 year old 8/1/17
• Part 2: Thoughts on constant spending in my spend-game context 7/31/17
• Some thoughts on constant-risk spend paths 7/30/17
• A spending game with dynamic forward simulation and an annuity check 7/27/17
• A spending game with some new players 7/25/17
• Another close, disgruntled look at peer lending performance 7/24/17
• Animated 3D cost of safety [Updated] 7/22/17
• 3D cost of safety - an extended version 7/21/17
• 3D cost of safety 7/20/17
• RH40 vs. analytically derived withdrawal using ERN math 7/19/17
• A Retiree's Baby Steps in Algorithmic Trading 7/18/17
• Cost of safety...in reverse 7/14/17
• B-Day Post and also the Cost of Retirement Safety 7/14/17
• Some Spending Games 7/11/17
• Excel PMT function vs RH40 for different mortality table assumptions 7/8/17
• SOA mortality table vs. Gompertz 7/7/17
• On "Growth Optimal Portfolios" by Corey Hoffstein and Newfound Research 7/5/17
• Tharp on Whether Retirement Simulation Overstates Tail Risk 7/5/17
• Effective Withdrawal Rates - Part 2: Japanese overlay 7/5/17
• Constant risk, constant lifestyle and the '70s 7/4/17
• Planning Variations on Life Expectancy Projections 7/3/17
• Effective Withdrawal Rates vs. the 1970s Plus Some Benchmarks 7/2/17
• SS Claiming 6/24/17
• Some Differences Between Open-ended MC Simulation and Historical "Closed" Sims 6/24/17
• RH40 in "multiplier" terms 6/13/17
• Comments on Ritholtz's review of William Sharpe's RISMAT 6/8/17
• Kitces on Simulation 6/2/17
• Active Retail Investors Are Useless, Right? 5/23/17
• Mortality Table Differences 5/22/17
• LinkedIn Version of RH40 5/21/17
• One Measure of the Cost of Self-Insuring Longevity 5/21/17
• A Practical Application of Geometric Return Analysis: Retiring My Alt Risk Strategy 5/19/17
• One More Thought on RH40 - Dynamic Longevity 5/16/17
• Playing Around With Some RH40 Math for context... 5/16/17
• Why my RH40 formula might actually be ok... 5/14/17
• RiversHedge Unveils its Very Own New-to-the-World RH40 Retirement Spending Formula 5/13/17
• A "Ripcord" Simulation 5/12/17
• Advancing the Retirement Finance Ball a Couple Yards Down the Field 5/10/17
• Why I Am Starting to Lose Interest in P2P Lending 5/5/17
• Un-retirement Project 4/22/17
• One more geo game - sensitivity to volatility 4/18/17
• Time Effects of Geometric Returns, Now With Spending 4/17/17
• My Own Private Idaho Of Utility - A Case Study In Spending Control 4/16/17
• Another obvious reason to put the squeeze on vol 4/11/17
• First baby step in hacking out a resampling technique 4/9/17
• Some Thoughts On the Trade-offs Of Strategy Switching or Aggressive Tactical Allocation and the Virtues of Sometimes Taking a Tax Hit 4/7/2017
• Exploring some ideas on the interaction between low vol portfolios, leverage, spending, and fail rates 4/6/2017
• Revisiting the Geometric Mean Frontier 4/3/2017
• At Play in the Fields of the Sim 4/3/2017
• Some Things I've Learned Recently about the Standard Deviation of Returns 3/31/2017
• Relative Risk re Terminal Wealth and Asset Allocation One Last Time... 3/26/2017
• Playing the Geometric Return "Game" with Some Real Data and My Systematic Alt-risk Strategy 3/26/2017
• Another Lesson in Geometric Returns Over Multiple Periods 3/24/2017
• Adding a Third Asset Class (Systematic Alt Risk) to the Utility of Simulated Terminal Wealth 3/23/2017
• Option Skew: Tail risk indicator or Income Opportunity? 3/22/17
• Utility of Terminal Sim Wealth, Now With Risk Aversion 3/21/17
• Utility of Sim Wealth in an Amateur Experiment 3/20/17
• What About a "Retirement Omega[ratio]?"  3/20/17
• A "Bench Strategy" by the Numbers 3/17/17
• Some Thoughts on a Geometric Mean Frontier 3/15/17
• Asset Allocation, Ruin and Geometric Return 3/14/17
• What I "Think" I've Learned about the Mean in Mean-Variance 3/8/17
• The Role That "Return Threshold Asymmetries" Might Play In Retirement Success, 3/7/17
• Impact on Fail Rates of Volatility Reduction Strategies, 3/5/17
• Collected Formulas Feb 25 2017
• My First Whack At Simulating A Floor-and-Upside Feb 24 2017
• Minimum and Maximum Retirement Spending Boundaries? Feb 23 2017
• A checkpoint on my current "geo-location" in retirement finance Feb 20 2017
• One more extension to my asset allocation optimization journey
• How hard can a Sharpe Ratio be? Feb 13 2017
• Three responses to my money machine question Feb 12 2017
• My money machine problem Feb 10 2017
• An extension to my asset allocation optimization journey Feb 8 2017
• An optimal asset allocation journey for me Feb 7 2017
• Ben Carlson on How the Bogle Model Beat the Yale Model Feb 6 2017
• A Reasonableness Check on My Backward Induction Optimization Feb 3
• So Long Longevity Randomizer, Nice Working With Ya... Feb 1 2017
• Why retirement/decumulation portfolios are different than accumulation Feb 1 2017
• Book mention: Retirement Income Redesigned: Master Plans for Distribution -- An Adviser's Guide Jan 31 2017
• Another Simple Formula for Spending or Ruin Risk Estimation, Jan 31 2017
• Putting Optimized Dynamic Allocations Back Into a Simulator, Jan 30 2017
• On Hacking Out a (Really) Rough Asset Allocation Optimizer by Using Backward Induction and Dynamic Stochastic Programming. Jan 26 2017
• Looking at 8 Retirement "Rules of Thumb" in Action Jan 20 2017
• Modern longevity shifts vs simulated fail rate estimates, Jan 17 2017
• 5 simple formulas for retirement are now 8 Jan 15 2017
• Postscript on my spending variance post... Jan 15 2017
• Systematic Alt-Risk Performance in Review: 2014-2016 Jan 14 2017
• Five games one can play with a longevity-varying simulator Jan 12 2017
• Here is an empirical window into the real "4% rule" Jan 11 2017
• Constant Relative Risk Aversion Utility and Retirement Investing/Consumption Jan 8 2017
• Another R project, This Time for Futures Options   Jan 6 2017
• Optical Connections to Light   Jan 2 2017
• A Preliminary Look at Optimizing Equity Allocations for Spending Shocks  Jan 01 2017
• More Than I (Or You) Ever Wanted To Know About Spending Variance Vs. Fail Rates. Dec 30 2016
• Effect on Cumulative Fail Rates by Hedging Longevity Risk With a Deferred Annuity, Dec 18 2016
• Another Stab at a Longevity Hedge Analysis Using Simple DIAs, Dec 18 2016
• Sheer Proximity or The Purpose Of An Early Retirement, Dec 18 2016
• MC sim V2.201 complete and I'm done messing around with it, Dec 17 2016
• Here is Another Way to Look at Fail Rates Dec 17 2016
• Contemplating a Terminal-Age-Weighted Retirement Sim Dec 16 2016
• What Would a Pessimistic View of Next-10-Year Returns do to Simulated Fail Rates? Dec 14 2016
• Longevity Uncertainty 3, Dec 13 2016
• Cage Match: PMT function, RMD formula, and Divide-by-10 Rule, Dec 8 2016
• Crude Futures Options Volatility Surface, Dec 6 2016
• A Quick Visual of the Anatomy of a 3D 5-Asset Mean-Variance Map, Dec 4, 2016
• 3D Efficient Frontier, Dec 4, 2016
• Visualizing A Missing Piece of Monte Carlo Simulation in 3D, Dec 2, 2016
• 3D Mean-Variance-Diversification Model, Nov 30, 2016
• Book Mention: Quantitative Momentum by Gray and Vogel, Nov 29, 2016
• Simple Deterministic View of the PV of Spending Rates vs Longevity Nov 27, 2016
• On Being Careful - Dividends, Part 2  Nov 22, 2016
• Joe Tomlinson on Variable Withdrawal and Improving Retirement Outcomes, Nov 19, 2016 
• On Being Careful - Dividend Edition, Nov 10, 2016
• Longevity and Uncertainty 2, Nov 9, 2016
• It's been A Long Trip Down "Trading Lane" Nov 5, 2016
• Life Expectancy and Uncertainty, Nov 1, 2016
• Home-Rolled Systematic Alt vs. What Benchmarks? Oct 29, 2016
• One More Update on an Amateur Alt Risk System Oct 26, 2016
• Fail Rate Estimates vs. Number of Simulation Runs Oct. 23, 2016
• Trading Time for Money, Oct 13, 2016
• Highway 12,  Sept 23 2016
• On the Virtue of Risk Management Rules, Sep 9 2016
• One View of Simulated Return Sequence Risk, Sep. 7, 2016
• On Hacking Out A Home Brew Version of Interactive Brokers Probability Lab, Sep 1, 2016
• On Real Risk and Selling Options,  Aug 29 2016
• Fail Rates: Is there Any Simplicity To Be Found On The Far Side Of Complexity? Aug 13 2016
• Five Really Simple, Useful and Free Retirement Formulas, Aug 9 2016
• How Many Allocations Are There If...? Aug 6 2016
• Checking Out an Old Rule of Thumb for Forward Price Probability For Option Trades, Aug 5 2016
• Update on a Systematic Alt Risk Strategy,  Aug 3 2016
• Why, Oh Why Would I Build A Monte Carlo Simulator From Scratch? 7/30/16
• Spending Declines in Retirement? July 24 2016
• Some Thoughts on "Hidden Spending" and Early Retirement, July 18 2016
• Some Initial Thoughts on the "Divide by 20" Idea as a Retirement Spending Rule July 6 2016
• On Markowitz's "Individual vs. Institutional Investing" (1991) July 3 2016
• A Closer Look at "Family Inc." By Douglas McCormick June 28 2016
• An Amateur's Hack To Figure Out How Much Spending Might Be Increased By Hedging Out Longevity Risk With An Annuity.  June 25 2016
• North
• ZIRP and NIRP Sucks for Retirees 
• Flipping Withdrawal Rates and Success Probabilities Upsidedown 
• My Theory of the "Two Retirements" June 14 2016
• The (Not So Clear) Advantages of Monte Carlo Simulation - June 14 2016
• Educational Inflation - A Personal Perspective - June12, 2016
• Retirement and "Family Inc" - JUN 4, 2016
• Seven Years of Investing in Peer-to-Peer Lending In 4 Charts - Jun 3 2016
• A Few Thoughts on Sequence of Returns Risk - June 2 2016
• Some Random Off-the-MapThoughts On Retirement Spending - May31 2016
• Book Review - Can I Retire Yet by Darrow Kirkpatrick - May 28, 2106
• New Whitepaper by Newfound Research on Tactical Fixed Income - 5 19 2016
• What Would It Have Felt Like in 2009 With a Fixed Withdrawal - Part 2 (3% spend) 5 7 2016
• What Would A 4% Fixed Withdrawal Actually Have Felt Like In 2009? 5 6 2016
• Volatility Risk Premium - an Amateur's Foray - April 29 2016
• Wade Pfau on Modern Retirement Theory at Forbes - April 26 2016
• Retirement "Big Picture" in One Diagram - April 26 2016
• Annually Recalculated Virtual Annuity: A Test Drive - April 24 2016
• Can a Retail Investor Capture "Systematic Alternative Risk Premia" Without Institutional Help? April 24 2016