Jul 4, 2017

Constant risk, constant lifestyle and the '70s





58 year old, start 1969
Initial spend rate set to .028 to reflect conservative age-based spend rate at initial state age
60/40 allocation, n/a fees and tax
$1M
Proportional draw
Traces to age 80 only (tail end of optimal annuity "safe harbor?")
Ignores wealth states, sustainability, fail rates etc.

  • Blue is spending ($1 compound) based on a continuously updated age-and-risk-aversion adjusted rule of thumb that represents constant risk. Starts from .028 at 58 to .06 at 80. Spend is calculated from beginning of year portfolio value. 
  • Red is the inflation of the initial lifestyle state (.028) in terms of the inflated value of a dollar over the period. 
  • Grey is the spread difference.   

Interpretations are several; I'm still working on that.  Final crossover is around age 72.  I might try this with a higher initial spend rate. The main story is the tradeoffs between between lifestyle, inflation, and risk of course.



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