1. My amateur hack for annuity price using: sum[t=1:120](tPx*(1+r)^-t)
| x=59, r~.0301, SOA data w G2 extension to 2018. CSP is calculated directly from the table
for 59+. The rate comes from guessing an average for the result in "3" below. The formula is from any textbook. The mortality function is a simple discrete version of some Gompertz math; the simplest version is the epigraphic equation at the start of chapter 2 of Milevsky's "7 equations book. Data and math are annualized not continuous.
2. Milevskys ILA function in Rscript (a "discretized (Reimann)
version of an actuarial expectation") represented by:
where w-x is forced to an endpoint around 121 and dt is 1/52. This is from "The Utility Value of Longevity Risk Pooling: TECHNICAL APPENDIX" Milevsky and Huang 2018 which, helpfully, provides the Rscript.
3. An aacalc.com estimate that uses SOA annuitant cohort data and an interpolated
treasury curve with a survival probability wtd avg r as of 3/2018 around .0301. Annual payout (not continuous) and MWR = 100%.
Using...
x = 59
m = 89.95 for 2 and 3 which roughly approximates the SOA data for that age...I think
b = 8.4 for 2 and 3
r = .0301
we get the following...
1. --> 17.985
2. --> 17.840
3. --> 18.011
Being sandwiched in between two guys smarter than me does not totally bum me out. I have a long way to go in all this but I at least feel better about my baby steps and now have some slick Rscript in which I can be confident.
No comments:
Post a Comment