There is nothing necessarily new or systematically thorough or dispositive here. Just curious about something I think I might have already covered years ago. The idea is to take $1, grow it at 4% with volatility of N[20%, 15%, 10%, 5%] and a spend rate of 4% over 30 years; 10,000 iterations. This is standard MC sim territory. No epiphanies or conclusions out of this. Just wanted to see what these distributions (using R standard density function) looked like when overlaid. Ignore the interpretation of negative wealth for now.
X is wealth outcome at horizon = 30
Y is density inferred from the simulation. Might have been better to have done a P mass/hist but the lines are easier to see
- black = 20% vol
- blue = 15%
- red = 10%
- green = 5%
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