Using the framework from the last post and the new assumptions above, this is what we get:
Figure 1. Real wealth option with changes in vol assumptions |
Discussion
It is a bit of a challenge for me to interpret this. It initially looks like that with higher vol we can spend a bunch more but that is probably a flawed interpretation. The further to the right we go in spending, we know that we will generally impinge on portfolio longevity (if we are working with simulators) or consumption utility (if we were using a life-cycle model). The further to the left we go, we know we will add to portfolio longevity but also lose, at some point, lifetime consumption utility. We also saw here that volatility all on its own, all else being equal, can suck some life out of portfolio longevity at certain spend rates. That background knowledge breeds caution in my limbic brain when confronted with this chart.
So, if we know intuitively from other analytical perspectives that we shouldn't back up the truck and load up on high-vol-high-spending strategies, what is this telling us (if we believe the model...which I'm telling you to be cautious about)? The best that I can tell, and I will take reader input, is that if one is going to play the "mess around with higher vol strategies to potentially enhance the period 30 optionality-gained-for-spending-less" game, which we know is potentially destructive to portfolio longevity, then it looks like the biggest bang for your buck, IF [1] you want to do it, is at somewhere around a 4% spend rate (given the fake assumptions...and, oh, by the way: huh? 4%? weird).
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[1] I will say that this whole concept is more or less working at cross-purposes with oneself. The point in retirement is to decumulate and consume or maybe also create a bequest. It is not typically a time to invest in upside wealth options. That's why I capitalized the IF. The only reason I was doing this post was to gain some insight into what it looks like when thinking like this. I realize that there may be some conceptual contradictions at play when messing around with this stuff.
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