Oct 10, 2017

The Shape of Ruin Risk

Using the setup, assumptions, and conclusions from the last post (A type of heat map of ruin risk arising from: age, allocation, spending, and return distributions) I thought I'd do one of those 3D visualization things to see what it looks like using one more dimension.  This graphic is based on the return, vol, allocation, and spend assumptions in the link but here it is limited to just age 60 (I only have ~8 months to go).

The chart can be characterized as the fail rate for different allocations to risk given the parameters in the link (one blue line for, say, a .03 spend rate) and then replicated for each spend rate from .03 to .07 in .01 chunks.  It was tricky to get a decent rotational perspective.  I thought about an animated gif but decided the effort to reward ratio was not in my favor. 

Fig. 1 - lifetime ruin risk for different allocations and spendrates







Here is a surface version...from excel...I can't quite figure out the R version yet.



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