White Coat Investor on retirement withdrawal plans

WCI:

"I think it is actually really important to know a little bit about this topic. But it is NOT important to know a ton about it. And the reason why is because there are lots of people who think knowing a lot about this topic will somehow allow them to come up with a scheme that will allow them to maximize their happiness and spending while minimizing their risk of running out of money should they live a long time. Which is pretty much nonsense...

Retirement is uncertain too. You don’t know how long you’ll live. You don’t know how many big expenses will come up. You don’t know what kind of market returns your portfolio will see nor in what sequence. Deal with it...

The funniest part about some studies and the things some people say in this regard is the false precision they use. I’ve seen withdrawal plans where the withdrawal rate went to three decimal points. Give me a break...

The most important factor in your retirement withdrawal plan is not your asset allocation, nor your longevity, nor your initial withdrawal rate. It is your flexibility...Put your effort there and you can afford to ignore an awful lot of the withdrawal rate chatter out there on blogs and internet forums.

Good common sense at The Most Important Factor in Retirement Withdrawal Plans, www.whitecoatinvestor.com.  I agree with the concept of flexibility, adaptation, and avoidance of false precision.  On the other hand the one quibble might be about his comments on the approximate withdrawal rates.  While "around 4% is close enough" is ok enough, I find the comments about the three decimal precision, in my world anyway, to feel a little strawmanish.  I seriously doubt anyone with an ounce of common sense or experience is going to believe there is a difference between a suggested 3.750% rate and 3.751%.  Also the one thing I found missing is a sufficient discussion of "age of start" (it's implicit in the table but not clear).  "Around 4%" is great for 65 (maybe adjust down for current forward expectations on equity and fixed income returns as of June 2018 ... while keeping the "stay flexible" advice in mind) but for a 50 year old, I'd call that kind of advice a type of malpractice. I would also call it the same thing for someone starting at age 80.