Apr 29, 2018

On Risk

"The acceptance of a probabilistic measure of risk was an act of faith.  The persistence of it in the face of its lack of success, and the heroic strategies that are invoked to immunize cherished theories are acts of faith as well.  There is more than the scientific method involved.  One can only guess whether the rejection of a probabilistic measure of risk would lead to a loss in status of the profession, a severe depreciation of painfully acquired human capital, a horror at the absence of any apparent alternative, or some or all of the above. It might certainly lead to a better theory."

Last paragraph from 'The History of Risk "Measurement"' Elton G. McGoun, 1995

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