The red line is a normal distribution (density) using price, vol and tenure. The blue line is a self-rolled function of premium that approximates what I call option price "intensity" that shows me skew and opportunity to sell volatility. Green is delta. Blue columns are the current premium at the avg of bid/ask. The vertical dotted lines are the 1 and 2 standard deviation markers of the red line. This shows me that I could get $550 for something that is at a 10 delta and more than 2 standard deviations outside a normal distribution. I think that is a good deal. Takes courage though.
Someone talk me into it. Not sure I have the courage. This should be a no-brainer but isn't.
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