I shoulda quit a couple years ago

I probably could have wrapped up the blog a couple years ago if I had read and posted a quote like this since it packs in a lot of my current understanding of the retirement problem. This is from "An Age-Based, Three Dimensional, Universal Distribution Model Incorporating Sequence Risk," Larry R. Frank Sr., John B. Mitchell, David M. Blanchett (2011):

Researchers have sought a single withdrawal rate that would last the retiree's entire lifetime from initial retirement to death. The authors suggest a more dynamic model should be used where the author’s prior work demonstrates that a retiree's transient state is in constant flux due primarily to market sequences. The model in this, and the authors’ prior paper, develops a methodology to monitor, evaluate and react as necessary to those transient states as well as base the model on age specific expected longevity rather than generic, ageless or unanchored, distribution periods. [emphasis added]

and, while I'm at it, this next link is an exceptionally wise and fresh post from Darrow Kirkpatrick (How Accurate Should Your Retirement Calculation Be?) with all the common sense that I should have conjured myself a long time ago.