Dec 13, 2016

Longevity Uncertainty 3

I was trying to build enough rudimentary programming skills in R last week that I could maybe consider rewriting my Monte Carlo simulator into something other than an old version of Excel.  Using the 2013 SS table (male) to shake out something I was trying to do with nested loops and R "lists" I ended up with this chart which is a more granular version (data for each age vs every 10 years) of a previously posted chart on longevity uncertainty that used boxplots[1] (same visual, I just needed something for each age in my exercise) . I thought I'd throw it out there as long as I had it.  For retirees, the main point is probably to think more carefully about a planning horizon before just blindly sticking "30 years" or "to age 82" into an online retirement calculator that is asking for "duration."


(+/-)std = plus or minus 1 standard deviation.  I did not label the chart well but I'm not doing it over.

[1] Given the non-normal distributions involved, the quartile boxplots are probably a better representation of dispersion than using standard deviation but then my goal was "programming training" and not statistics. Also median is probably better than mean but...same excuse.

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