Feb 24, 2019

Cotton on the Fog of Retirement

How do I love the article (Negotiating the Fog of Retirement Uncertainty, Forbes Feb 2019)? Let me count the ways by way of some quotes:
  1. "The length of your retirement is quite uncertain and, since your household is a sample of one, could actually range from less than a year to 40 or more. Life expectancy simply provides an average for many people who are a lot like you and there is no reason to believe yours will be average."
  2. "Most spending rules ignore how much you will actually spend or even probably spend and instead make the dubious assumption that whatever amount of spending that will not likely deplete your savings portfolio will also be enough to pay your bills…"
  3. "In other words, our household's future retirement spending is relatively unpredictable."
  4. "Combining the distributions of random variables increases the uncertainty but ignoring one or more of them is worse."
  5. "It is extremely unlikely that our actual spending path throughout retirement will even remotely mirror sustainable spending predictions."
  6. "This isn't to say that spending rules have no value but they're at best a ballpark estimate from within an enormous ballpark."
  7. "The key is to recognize that a spending rule estimate is good for perhaps a year. They should be recalculated at least annually. Retirement plans based heavily on spending rules have a one-year planning horizon."

2 comments:

  1. When you factor in job uncertainty, it's a real mess. The only way I know of to create relative certainty is to achieve Financial Independence (FI) at a relatively young age, i.e. one's 40's or 50's... but that's really hard and typically requires income at several multiples of the median unless one excels at keeping their cost of living very low. It may seem to simple to say, but it's so central that it has to be said: the key factor is to widen that gap between Income and Expense, and put that gap into savings.

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  2. Yup. FI when young has it's own set of worries.

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