Jul 27, 2016

Fear the 1970s

This chart below is from Meb Faber's new paper on investing (The Trinity Portfolio: A Long-Term Investing Framework Engineered for Simplicity, Safety, and Outperformance).  

I lived thru the 1970s and was the dependent of -- and later a caregiver for -- a single parent that needed to use a small portfolio to provide for a family of five, then a retirement, and then long term care during the 1970s and after.  The mind-numbing destructive power of long periods of bad stock returns, bad bond returns, and bad inflation is a hard concept to get across to people born in, say, 1990 but it is very real; trust me.  Here, go do this for me: first, read an article on sequence of returns risk, then start a retirement with a big fat drawdown, and then, when you are sitting down and have a suitably stiff drink in hand: come back and then behold and fear the 1970s.







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