The future bears down upon each one of us with all the hazards of the unknown. The only way out is through. - Plutarch (allegedly; haven't validated yet)This reminds me of some thoughts I had about retirement finance where there are varying degrees of risk and uncertainty. Here is my own version of the layer cake so far. I'm not married to this, just thinking out loud:
My layers of uncertainty
a. things known with certainty for which we can and should and usually do plan
b. things known with certainty for which we don't usually plan or needn't bother much
c. things that are associated with risk and probability but that are plan-able and hedge-able and are worth planning and hedging due to the consequences
d. things that are risky or probabilistic but not worth the effort or have lower consequences or cost
e. uncertain things for which few can plan and for which holding resources in reserve is inefficient but where one should probably try to do so, at least for a while until the unknown comes in a bit over time. Longevity risk, up to a point, comes to mind
f. uncertain things for which few can plan but also where one should probably not even bother
g. the pure, impenetrable chaos and unknowns of the universe about which it is probably pointless to even consider either occurrence or response, except as a general phenomenon and mystery associated with being alive. Ask Job about that one.
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