Jul 5, 2017

Effective Withdrawal Rates - Part 2: Japanese overlay

This is an extension of a prior post (Effective Withdrawal Rates vs. the 1970s Plus Some Benchmarks) and it has all the same assumptions and disclaimers and it retains the same core question: how would a constant spend assumption have felt along the way.  The difference here is that I added an overlay where I replaced the 60% allocation to the S&P starting in 1969 with a return series that represents the Nikkei between 1985 and 2016.  The plan fails after about 26 years; it would have had me on the edge of my seat after about 15. Even a simulator would have to work hard to come up with a return series like that.








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